Turmoil Watch e un articolo da leggere
Di seguito trovate una valanga di numeri (da “The Media Line“).
Un fondamentale backgrounder lo trovate qui.
Facts in Context: Turmoil Watch
Since Mohamed Bouazizi set himself afire December 14 in Tunisia, anti-government protests have erupted throughout much of the Middle East, bringing down two leaders and threatening others.
This table details the likely social, economic and political factors that might lead to mass protests, the means for organizing and leading it, and how significant the collapse of the government would be for the rest of the world. Countries that are relatively small and/or have been quiet to date have not been included in the survey.
For the sources and explanations of the material, see below.
Motivation Median age 26.2 Poverty rate 22.6%
Higher education 23.9% Jobless 10% Treated respectfully 84% Income inequality 35.3
Corruption 2.9 / 105
Human rights: Torture banned since 2004 but Red Cross cannot inspect all security facilities to verify; emergency rule in force since 1992.
Leader in power: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika since 1999, won re-election in 2009 with 90.2% of the vote; last real elections were in 1991 when Islamists won and government cancelled results.
Means Internet access 11.9
Press freedom 47.33 / 133
Organized opposition: Rally for Culture and Democracy
Who Cares Algeria has 12.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2009 (world’s 15th largest) and 4.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (10th largest).
So Far Anti-government protests broke out in early January after prices rose sharply for flour, sugar and other food staples but have more recently evolved into calls for the president to step down.
Concessions Bouteflika promised Feb 14 to lift a longstanding state of emergency.
Motivation Median age 28.1 Poverty rate: NA
Higher education 29.9 Jobless: NA Treated respectfully: NA Income inequality: NA
Corruption 4.9 / 48
Human rights: Conditions deteriorated sharply in 2010; authorities have regularly employed torture since 2007.
Leader in power: King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa has ruled since 1999 as
hereditary monarch. He appoints the prime minister; elected parliament has existed since 2001.
Means Internet access 51.9
Press freedom 51.38 / 144
Symbol: Ali Abdul Hadi Mushaima was killed in Feb 14 Day of Rage protests
Organized opposition Islamic National Accord Association represents Shiites in parliament; Bahrain Centre for Human Rights.
Who Cares No oil, but strategic location in the Gulf, off coast of Saudi Arabia; home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet
So Far Demonstrations spurred mainly by Shiite majority protesting second-class status have left two dead.
Concessions Government has handed out equivalent of $2,560 to each Bahraini family and has promised easing of media restrictions.
Motivation Median age 23.9 Poverty rate 16.7%
Higher education 31.2% Jobless 9.2% Treated respectfully 90% Income Inequality 32.1
Corruption 3.1 / 98
Human rights: Police, security forces regularly employ torture in police stations, detention centers and points of arrest; emergency rule since 1981.
Leader in power: Until he resigned Feb 11, Husni Mubarak had ruled for 30 years; the head of Egypt’s Higher Military Council, Mohamad Hussain Tantawi, is now in control.
Means Internet access 16.6
Press freedom 43.33 / 127
Symbol: Wael Ghonim, jailed Google executive who helped instigate protests
Organized opposition: April 6 Youth Movement organized mass protests via social media; Muslim Brotherhood is best organized and biggest of major opposition groups.
Who Cares Egypt is world’s most populous Arab country, whose political influence extends throughout the Arab world; it is a key U.S. ally in the region
and one of two countries to have signed a pace treaty with Israel; Suez Canal is a major world shipping route.
So Far Unrest has persisted after resignation, compounded by labor strikes. 300 killed in protests.
Concessions Since Mubarak resigned, army has dissolved parliament, suspended the constitution and called for elections in six months.
Motivation Median age 26.8 Poverty rate 18%
Higher education 36.1% Jobless Treated respectfully 81% Income Inequality 38.3
Corruption 2.2 / 146
Human rights: Torture used to extract confessions; 388 people were executed in 2010, emergency rule
Leader in power: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in generally free elections in 2005 and re-elected in 2009 in a vote whose results were disputed by the opposition; Ali Khamenei, supreme leader, has been in power since 1989, appointed by assembly of experts.
Means Internet access 32.0
Press freedom 94.56 / 175
Symbol: Neda Agha-Soltan, whose death by security forces was captured on video.
Organized opposition: Losing 2009 presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi; former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Who Cares Iran has 138 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (world’s 4th largest) and 43.3 trillion cubic meters of proven gas reserves (world’s second largest); West believes Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
So Far 2009 protests over Ahmadinejad’s election victory were quashed
by the government; demonstrations erupted again this year on Feb 14 with tens of thousands marching in Tehran streets; security forces fired tear gas and detained demonstrators.
Motivation Median age 19.3 Poverty rate 25%
Higher education 15.7% Jobless Treated respectfully 84% Income Inequality 35.3
Corruption 1.5 / 175
Human rights: Widespread reports of torture, other abuse of detainees held by defense, interior ministries and police.
Leader in power: Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki has been in power since 2006 and was re-elected in generally free and fair elections in 2010.
Means Internet access 1.0
Press freedom 45.58 / 130
Organized opposition: NA
Who Cares Iraq has180 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (world’s 2nd largest) and 3.2 trillion of natural gas (11th largest).
So Far Thousands have rallied to protest poverty, joblessness, and food, electricity and water shortages but not to bring down elected government.
Concessions Maliki cut his salary in half, reportedly vowed not to seek third term in 2014.
Motivation Median age 22.8 Poverty rate 14.2%
Higher education 37.7% Jobless 13.0% Treated respectfully 89% Income Inequality 37.7
Corruption 4.7 / 50
Human rights: Torture, routine and widespread at police stations.
Leader in power: King Abdullah inherited the throne in 1999 as heir to dynasty in power since 1921.
Means Internet access 27.0
Press freedom 37.00 / 120
Organized opposition: Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamic Action Front
Who Cares Relatively small and poor country, Jordan is a key U.S. ally in the region
and occupies a strategic position between Israel, Palestinian-ruled areas, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
So Far Weekly demonstrations on Friday had called for prime minster’s resignation, but not king’s. Since new premier was named, protests have grown smaller, less focused.
Concessions New prime minster, Marouf Al-Bakhit, and government named Feb 1 with mandate for political reform and includes opposition and media figures; in January, government cancelled price hikes and added subsidies and government jobs.
Motivation Median age 26.2 Poverty rate 33%
Higher education 55.7 Jobless: NA Treated respectfully 64% Income Inequality: NA
Corruption 2.2 / 146
Human rights: Numerous reports of torture by security agencies.
Leader in power Col. Muammar Qaddafi has ruled since 1969.
Means Internet access 5.1
Press freedom 63.50 / 160
Organized opposition: National Conference for the Libyan Opposition (NCLO)
Who Cares Libya has 41 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (world’s 10th largest) and 1.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (22nd largest).
So Far First demonstrations reported Feb 15 in Benghazi; NCLO has called for mass protests inside and outside of Libya to mark Feb 17, 2006 uprisings.
Motivation Median age 26.5 Poverty rate 19%
Higher education: NA Jobless 9.6% Treated respectfully 89% Income Inequality 40.9
Corruption 3.4 / 85
Human rights: Islamists and terror suspects have reportedly been subjected to torture.
Leader in power: King Mohammed VI has ruled since 1999 as heir to dynasty whose authority is legitimized by religious tradition and history.
Means Internet access 33.0
Press freedom 47.40 / 135
Organized opposition: NA
Who Cares Morocco is friendly with the West and it shares control of the strategic
Straight of Gibraltar with Spain and Britain.
So Far No major reported protests to date. Facebook groups have called for nationwide protests on Feb 20.
Concessions Government on Feb 15 said it will almost double state subsidies by $1.8 billion to counter an increase in global commodity prices.
Motivation Median age 17.6 Poverty rate 70% (Gaza), 46% (West Bank)
Higher education 47.2% Jobless 30% (Gaza), 16% (West Bank) Treated respectfully 89% Income Inequality: NA
Human rights: Hamas police in some cases torture people suspected of homosexuality, extra-marital sex. Some 106 complaints of torture by PA security services.
Leaders in power: Mahmoud Abbas was elected president in a semi-democratic election in 2005 but delayed scheduled 2009 elections and remains in office.
Means Internet access 9.0
Press freedom 56.13 / 150
Organized opposition: Hamas (West Bank), Fatah (Gaza)
Who Cares Palestinians are divided between Hamas-ruled Gaza and Fatah-ruled West
Bank; collapse of Fatah, which backs peace talks with Israel, would mark a setback to the U.S. and Israel, especially if Islamists seized control.
So Far Small demonstrations in the West Bank supporting Egyptian opposition were blocked by security personnel.
Concessions PA cabinet resigned Feb 14 and PA has called municipal and parliamentary/presidential elections for July and September.
Motivation Median age: 24.6 Poverty rate: NA
Higher education 29.9 Jobless 10.5% Treated respectfully 77% Income Inequality: NA
Corruption 4.7 / 50
Human rights: Detainees face arbitrary arrest, torture and ill-treatment
in detention; Saudi judges routinely sentence defendants to lashings.
Leader in power: King Abdullah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz Al Saud, scion of the ruling Al-Saud family, which came to power in the 18th century, has ruled since 2005. He is 86 years old and ailing.
Means Internet access 31.5
Press freedom 61.50 / 157
Organized opposition: None
Who Cares Saudi Arabia has 267 billion barrels of oil reserves (the world’s largest) and 7.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (5th largest); while militarily weak, its oil and financial resources make it a key Western ally.
So Far Saudi Arabia has seen no anti-government protests, although demonstrators did organize to protest government failure to deal with flooding in Jeddah last month.
Concessions The government opened a Facebook page in February to allow citizens to file complaints.
Motivation Median age 22.5 Poverty rate 11.9%
Higher education NA Jobless 11% (2009) Treated respectfully 91% Income Inequality: NA
Corruption 2.5 / 127
Human rights: At least 5 detainees died in custody in 2010, with no serious investigations into deaths; emergency rule in force since 1963.
Leader in power: Bashar Assad inherited presidency from father Hafez although officially subject to referendum, which he won with 97.6% in 2007; Assad dynasty has been in power since 1970.
Means Internet access 17.3
Press freedom 91.50 / 173
Organized opposition: None
Who Cares Syria is Iran’s chief ally in the Arab world and influences Lebanon; fall of Assad regime would likely undermine Iranian influence in region.
So Far “Day of Rage” organized on Facebook for Feb 5 failed to materialize.
Concessions Assad told The Wall Street Journal Jan. 31 he planned reforms for local elections, a new media law and more power for private organizations; fuel subsidy for public workers boosted in January.
Motivation Median age 29.1 Poverty rate 7.6%
Higher education 31.6% Jobless 13.2% Treated respectfully 91% Income Inequality: 40.8
Corruption 4.3 / 15
Human rights: Frequent allegations of torture haven’t been investigated by government; emergency rule, declared in January, remains in force after Ben Ali’s resignation.
Leader in power: Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ruled for 23 years until Jan 15. Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi now heads a transition government.
Means Internet access 27.1
Press freedom 72.50 / 164
Symbol: Mohamed Bouazizi, whose act of self-immolation inspired protestors, first in Tunisia and later elsewhere in the Arab world.
Organized opposition: Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT)
Who Cares A small country, Tunisia doesn’t have significant natural resources or occupy a strategic location; influence as the cradle of revolution has been overtaken by Egypt.
So Far Granddaddy of revolution, protests began in mid-December and forced Ben Ali into exile; transition government faced continued unrest until remnants of Ben Al’s allies were removed in early February; 200 killed.
Concessions Ben Ali’s allies purged from interim government and his political party banned; interim government has promised presidential election by July, dissolution of parliament and election of constituent assembly to draft a new constitution.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Motivation Median age 31.7 Poverty rate 19.5% (2003)
Higher education 25.2% Jobless 4.0% (2008) Treated respectfully 94% Income Inequality NA
Corruption 6.3 / 28
Human rights: Allegations of torture by police.
Leader in power: Confederation of seven emirates each governed by hereditary rulers; legislative body, Federal National Council, is half appointed, half elected by an electoral college.
Means Internet access 65.2
Press freedom 23.75 / 87
Organized opposition: None
Who Cares The UAE is a major business center and major producer of oil and gas. It occupies a strategic position in the Gulf
So Far No significant protests to date.
Concessions UAE said in early February that electoral college will be increased 300-fold to about 12,000 people, but delegates will continue to be chosen by the rulers (12 out of every 1,000 Emiratis will be entitled to vote).
Motivation Median age 17.8 Poverty rate 41.8%
Higher education 10.2% Jobless: NA Treated respectfully 84% Income Inequality: 37.7
Corruption 2.2 / 146
Human rights: Arbitrary arrest and use of force against demonstrators; allegations of torture.
Leader in power: President Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled for 32 years.
Means Internet access 1.6
Press freedom 82.13 / 170
Organized opposition: Common Forum, an alliance of parliamentary opposition groups.
Who Cares Arab world’s poorest, least developed country, Yemen has
emerged as a base for Al-Qaeda, whose strength could be enhanced
by the collapse of the Saleh government, and lies close to oil-shipping routes.
So Far Organized and largely peaceful protests have occurred since January, but since Feb 13, tone has changed, with demonstrators called for the president’s resignation.
Concessions Saleh has pledged not to run for re-election when his term ends in 2013 or allow his son to run; he has raised army salaries, halved income taxes and imposed price controls.
Sources and Explanations
Median age assumes a younger population is more likely to take to the streets and, given
high rate of jobless youth in Arab world, more likely to be facing economic distress or dissatisfaction.. Median age for developed world is 39.9 and for Arab world 23.1. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.
Higher education measures percentage of relevant population enrolled in post-high educational institutions in 2001-2009. It assumes that more educated people are more likely to engage in sustained protests. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.
Treated respectfully refers to percentage of people who responded to a Gallup World Survey during the 2006-2009 period, “Were you treated respectfully all day yesterday?”
Poverty measures percentage of population under national poverty line. Sources: UN Development Program, CIA Factbook.
Jobless measures percentage of civilian labor force without work in 2010. Youth jobless rates are typically much higher. Source: International Monetary Fund.
Income Inequality is measured by the Gini co-efficient. A higher score means more inequality. Sweden’s Gini co-efficient is 25. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.
Corruption measures perception of malfeasance based on a survey of business people with a score of 10 meaning government is entirely clean and 0 entirely corrupt. Denmark was the cleanest country, scoring 9.3. Source: Transparency International 2010 report.
Human Rights focuses on torture and emergency rule, two violations that opposition leaders have cited as key to their demands. Source: Human Rights Watch 2010 report.
Internet access per 100 people is a measure of how deeply social media and other on-line tools reach the population. For comparison’s sake, the U.S. rate is 75.9. Source: UN Human Development Report 2010.
Press freedom measures censorship imposed by the government and self-censorship attacks on journalists. A lower score means greater press freedom. The second number is the country’s world ranking. Source: Reporters Without Borders 2010.